Late May to late June, the rebar contract callback to 2900 yuan / ton line, into the oscillation consolidation form. The last week of June, with plum time approaching, the social stock does not form an effective accumulation, coupled with the macro side by pre tightening steering steady, expected funds shortage does not appear, the Bulls confidence, Masukura up the disk. Looking at the market outlook, the current market is bullish for the bulls and the market is still bullish.
Inventory accumulation is expected to fall through
In the mid to late 6, market participants generally for the upcoming rainy season there is fear, high profit, steel production, increase horsepower trader is not stockpile. Originally short expected supply and demand under the joint effect of the formation of inventory accumulation, and thus the formation of direct pressure on steel prices. However, the actual observation of the situation is not the same, although the steel plant in the production of full throttle, but the whole 6 months late, social inventory chain has continued downward trend. From research and procurement data, the terminal demand did not appear more than expected decline. Inventory accumulation is expected to fall at the end of June, the Bulls confidence, breakthrough on the triangular shape disk oscillation. At present, subject to the mills of high profit and high yield, traders cautious short-term change, social stock still does not have the retaliatory surge conditions. Later, if the stock is not passive to form an effective accumulation, then the possibility of spot crash is relatively small, the futures discount structure is still favorable for the bulls.
Hot metal storage gap, high profits will continue
In the first half, the intermediate frequency furnace closed down basically, involving related output of about 60 million tons to 1 tons, and the direct clearing of the output outside the table made the demand turn to the inside of the table, and the market generated a gap between supply and demand. While originally expected by hot metal conversion process realize varieties profit rebalancing has not happened, while steel over 1000 yuan / ton to maintain high profits, early in profit margins or even a loss, and other varieties of cold-rolled coil profit is obviously repaired, it reflects the essence of molten iron is a gap instead of a single species.
Arc furnace, from the market research point of view, subject to the technology and graphite electrode production capacity and other factors, the arc furnace marginal increment is not as expected, the production peak will be delayed to 8-9 months later. The current iron deposit gap, blast furnace has started to relatively high, and with low inventory, as well as eastern China demand out of the rainy season depression, short-term demand or marginal improvement. In addition, based on the smooth surface of the macro and second half of the green limit production is expected, in July, high steel profits will continue.
On the basis of fixed prices
In June, with the revised macroeconomic expectations, short-term basis has also been modified greatly. From the continuity of the demand, 3 - 5 of real estate data chain did not appear to decline than expected, most of the performance index is more gentle, the base year fluctuations, the overall expected the second half of the real estate for the level of demand for steel will be lower than the first half, but in infrastructure investment hedge, or will tend to be flat. At the same time, the second half of the policy or the frequent environmental production also help to return the far month basis.
On the disk, the main contract once again explore the first two high points in the year, the price into the high oscillation zone, the short-term is still on the power. Relatively certain is that, in the case of other variables unchanged, the steel price is easy to rise and fall, and the short-term 3100 - 3200 yuan / ton range is the steel spot, the cost of each species has strong support price.
From the basic and macro point of view, the current low thread, inventory, supply and demand gap, coordination time, plum and macro surface to smooth, both factors. Disk point of view, the current situation is still favorable for the bulls, before the emergence of new variables, the market still tend to repair market basis.